Seat Predictions & Exit Polls
Exit Polls and Seat Predictions: Mahayuti Alliance Poised for a Clear Lead in BMC Elections
Mumbai, January 16, 2026: As the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections enter the crucial counting phase, exit polls released after voting on January 15 provide the first comprehensive indicators of how the political landscape in India’s richest civic body may be reshaped. The BMC, with 227 seats and a majority mark of 114, has drawn intense focus from political analysts, parties, and electorate alike.
Exit Polls Consistently Predict Mahayuti Majority
A range of exit polls—conducted independently by established survey agencies and media partners—suggest a decisive advantage for the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance, comprising the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena faction.
Axis My India, one of the prominent pollsters, projects the Mahayuti alliance to win between 131 and 151 seats, comfortably above the 114-seat majority.
According to the JVC exit poll, the Mahayuti could secure around 138 seats.
Saam TV exit polling forecasts the alliance winning 119 seats, with individual party allocations of 84 for the BJP and 35 for the Shinde-led Shiv Sena.
DV Research offers a slightly narrower projection, estimating 107–122 seats for the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance.
These forecasts indicate broad consensus among pollsters that the Mahayuti alliance is expected to exceed the threshold needed for control of the civic body.
Opposition Blocs Positioned Second
The principal opposition projection comes from the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) in alliance with Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) and other partners:
- Axis My India estimates this alliance will secure 58–68 seats.
- JVC’s projection assigns about 59 seats to the UBT-MNS group.
These figures suggest that while the Thackeray-aligned coalition could remain a significant presence in the BMC, it is unlikely to cross the half-way mark according to current exit poll data.
Smaller Parties and Congress Projections
- The Indian National Congress and the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) alliance are predicted to secure approximately 12–16 seats in the BMC.
- Smaller parties and independent candidates are collectively projected to win between six and 12 seats.
While these figures position Congress and allied groups well behind the two main blocs, they reflect a modest presence that could influence post-election negotiations on key civic issues.
Exit Poll Methodology and Context
Exit polls measure the voting preferences of electors immediately after they cast their ballots and are typically based on systematic sampling of voters exiting polling stations. Though an early indicator of electoral sentiment, these projections are not official results and may vary from the final count published by the Election Commission of India later today.
The overall voter turnout in Mumbai’s civic elections is reportedly moderate, with estimates indicating around 46–54% participation, a significant metric that may influence final outcomes, especially in closely contested wards.
What Exit Polls Indicate for Governance
A majority for the Mahayuti alliance in the BMC holds implications beyond civic administration. Control of Mumbai’s civic infrastructure and financial powers—given the corporation’s annual budget exceeding ₹74,000 crore—can influence governance priorities, urban development, and political momentum ahead of future state elections.
As vote counting proceeds, these exit poll projections will soon be weighed against actual results from wards across the metropolis. Final outcomes will clarify whether the patterns indicated by survey agencies translate into the distribution of seats that shapes Mumbai’s civic governance for the next five years.
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Last Updated on: Friday, January 16, 2026 1:49 pm by Rishidhar Reddy | Published by: Rishidhar Reddy on Friday, January 16, 2026 1:49 pm | News Categories: News
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